The Effect of Perceived Risk, Subjective Norm, and Religiosity on Indonesian Muslim Travel Intentin (Umrah & Hajj) During Middle East War 2026

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Abrari, Daffa (2026) The Effect of Perceived Risk, Subjective Norm, and Religiosity on Indonesian Muslim Travel Intentin (Umrah & Hajj) During Middle East War 2026. Diploma thesis, IPMI Institute.

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Abstract

Research Question: This study investigates how perceived risk, subjective norm, and religiosity influence Indonesian Muslim travel intention to undertake Umrah and Hajj in the Middle East during the 2026 regional conflict. Specifically, it addresses three core research questions: how does perceived risk affect travel intention, how do subjective norms influence travel intention, and how does religiosity impact travel intention? Using an explanatory quantitative design, primary data were collected via an online survey from 101 Indonesian Muslim respondents aged 18 and above who expressed interest in future Umrah or Hajj travel. The measurement model and structural model were evaluated using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to test the proposed hypotheses. Statistical analysis revealed that subjective norms (β = 0.484, p < 0.001) and religiosity (β = 0.356, p = 0.001$) have positive and statistically significant effects on travel intention. Subjective norm emerged as the most influential driver. In contrast, perceived risk (β = 0.002, p = 0.487$) showed no significant effect on travel intention. Together, the three predictors account for 55.3% (R2 = 0.553$) of the variance in travel intention toward Umrah and Hajj destinations. Significance and Value: These findings demonstrate that internal spiritual commitments and external social encouragement outweigh safety and uncertainty concerns when Indonesian Muslims decide to undertake religious pilgrimages in conflict-affected regions. Theoretically, this study extends tourist behavior models by highlighting the boundary conditions of perceived risk in spiritual contexts. Practically, it provides actionable insights for travel agencies and government bodies to prioritize community-driven communication strategies, family referral programs, and trusted religious leader engagement over safety-centric marketing

Keyword: perceived risk, subjective norm, religiosity, travel intention to undertake umrah and hajj

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions:	Thesis > Bachelor of Business Administration
Depositing User:	sandra margaretha
Date Deposited:	21 Oct 2026 06:38
Last Modified:	21 Oct 2026 06:38
URI:	http://repository.ipmi.ac.id/id/eprint/3086

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